Over the past twenty years, in spite of incredible new technologies, US real GDP growth has averaged just 2.0% at an annual rate. By contrast, in the twenty
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For the past two years, we have been warning that the stock market is overvalued. While our capitalized profits model is simple, it is more complex than just
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Last Friday, Jerome Powell gave the Fed Chief’s annual speech at the Kansas City Fed’s 2025 meeting in Jackson Hole, WY. He said the balance of economic risks
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Recently, due to deals President Trump is making, some are saying the United States has embarked on a version of Chinese-style “state capitalism” – directly
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At the last meeting two weeks ago, Chairman Jerome Powell got the Federal Reserve to stand pat on interest rates, but not without a struggle.
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In the immediate aftermath of Friday’s much anticipated Employment Report it seemed like the judgement from analysts, talking heads, and even markets was
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In 1852, Karl Marx said "Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under circumstances chosen by themselves, but
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Looking back on it, the first quarter of the year was a complete anomaly. Real GDP declined at a 0.2% annual rate, and the left side of the political spectrum
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The United States consumes a large share of its GDP; China, not so much. The result is Yin and Yang. On net, China produces and the US consumes.
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Back during the Financial Panic of 2008, clickbait media kept screaming “Hyperinflation.” We consistently pushed back against this theme, and argued inflation
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Conventional wisdom was that the tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration would cause higher inflation and slower growth – stagflation as far as the eye
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Moody’s finally downgraded US government debt on May 16th to Aa1, its second highest rating. With the US $36 trillion (and rising) in debt, it’s not hard to
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