What’s going on with the markets and the economy? Long-term Treasury yields are up substantially since last Fall while the stock market, after a big rally, has
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Wars cost money, and throughout history countries have borrowed to fight them. There are plenty of examples of wars bankrupting countries, but the US was so
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What would you do if you won the Mega Millions? It’s now up to a record $1.55 billion! We would start a not-for-profit to educate people not to play the
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Austrians are different than Keynesians. Austrians think recessions are caused by government failure, while Keynesians think they are caused by market failure
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No one should be popping champagne when they see Thursday’s GDP report. The good news is that it won’t be negative. The bad news is that even if it hits our
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The best news last week was that inflation came in below expectations for June. Consumer prices rose a moderate 0.2% for the month, while producer prices
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Prior to 2008, when the Federal Reserve ran a “scarce reserve” monetary policy, just about every bank in the US had a federal funds trading desk. These trading
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In 1852, Karl Marx said "Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under circumstances chosen by themselves, but
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We get a big bunch of data reports this week: GDP revisions and economy-wide corporate profits for the first quarter; durable goods, new home sales, personal
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Lately, it’s been easy to see the optimism. As of the Friday close, the S&P 500 is up 15% so far this year (not including dividends) and up 23% (again, without
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The Federal Reserve will meet this week and announce its decisions on Wednesday. As of the close on Friday, the futures market indicated about a 30% chance of
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We have used the word “unprecedented” to talk about the economy during and after COVID. We have never before locked down economic activity, while printing
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