Two weeks ago, the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note was hovering around 5%, and the S&P 500 was in contraction territory, down over 10%. But last week, the
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The S&P 500 closed at 4,117 on Friday, more than 10% below its recent peak in late July. Some are saying it’s a brand-new bear market for stocks. In this view
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We still think a recession is coming, but it definitely didn’t start in the third quarter. Instead, as we set out below, it looks like real GDP expanded at a 4
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At the end of October we will get our first look at real GDP growth for the third quarter and it looks like it was very strong. We’ll have a more exact
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Back in 2008, Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson, using fear of financial collapse, convinced President Bush and Congress to 1) pass a $700 billion bailout of banks
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The fiscal year ended last week, alarms went off both literally and figuratively, and a last-minute deal was reached to keep the government open for another
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We have plenty of data reports to go, but, so far, the third quarter is shaping up to be a strong one for the US economy. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model is
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A month ago, many people were pretty sure serious inflation concerns had passed. After the equivalent of 22 quarter-point rate hikes and the biggest drop in
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Back in the 1980s, President Reagan took enormous political heat (Sam Donaldson comes to mind) for being fiscally irresponsible. His offense? Presiding over a
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At the heart of our assessment of the stock market is our Capitalized Profits Model.
That model takes economy-wide profits (excluding profits or losses
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What’s going on with the markets and the economy? Long-term Treasury yields are up substantially since last Fall while the stock market, after a big rally, has
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Wars cost money, and throughout history countries have borrowed to fight them. There are plenty of examples of wars bankrupting countries, but the US was so
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