It’s hard to open up a newspaper these days and not see a scary story about the debt ceiling debate. The Biden Administration is saying that a “default” is
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Yes, we have banking problems. No, this is not 2008. It’s much more like the 1970s Savings & Loan problems. In other words, we do not have credit problems
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For nine of the last fifteen years, few people thought about the Fed. Sure, we discussed QT and QE, but the Federal Reserve held interest rates at zero year
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In spite of weakness in some economic data, problems in the banking sector, and much higher interest rates, real GDP in the first quarter will almost certainly
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The US economy is being tugged in two different directions right now. On the positive side we have the lingering effects of the massive stimulus of 2020-21
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If you were bullish for 2023…congratulations! The S&P 500 rose 7.0% in the first quarter and, although we still have more data to analyze before we finalize
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The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter point on Wednesday. That, by itself, was clear, with the Fed now targeting a range for
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The late great Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia was often in dissent in key legal cases during his long career. Almost thirty years ago, he wrote that “Day
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While many investors are focused on the financial troubles affecting Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and whether those troubles will spread, there were two other
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In multiple ways, this is the most difficult time we have ever seen to make a forecast. “Unprecedented” actions by government – locking down the economy
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In the past few weeks, a growing chorus of economists and investors have decided that the pessimistic narrative had it wrong all along, that the US isn’t headed
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You can’t read or watch financial news these days without
a heavy dose of speculation about what the Fed is going to do
with short-term interest rates, when it
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